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Slump appraisals challenge state Realtors

Posted in More Real Estate by ][-NooM-][ on the November 28th, 2009

Now, the spotlight has shifted to the Manhattan Beach broker, who took over as the 2010 president of the California Association of Realtors earlier this month.

Goddard, manager of RE/MAX Marquee Partners in Manhattan Beach, began selling real estate 35 years ago, specializing in residential properties, residential income properties and commercial buildings. Goddard also is a developer and a licensed general contractor. During the past 28 years, he has consistently ranked among the top 10 agents in his company’s group of more than 400 agents.

Over the past 17 years, he has chaired or served on myriad committees and forums at the local, state, and national association level. As president of CAR, one of Goddard’s goals is to shed light on housing-related issues, including the rights of private-property owners, and housing affordability.

Us: What are the biggest challenges facing you in your year as C.A.R. president?
The issues that the real estate industry currently is facing – Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC), the economy, the amount of foreclosures, bank-owned properties, and short sales on the market-will continue to be a challenge throughout next year.

It’s going to be important that the Federal Reserve keeps loan rates where they are and that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain intact and viable. The purpose of Fannie and Freddie is to provide capital to lenders so they can issue home loans to qualified buyers in any market. We also need to work with the jumbo lenders to make it easier for high-end buyers to obtain financing.

Although the creators of HVCC were well intentioned, the code is negatively affecting real estate sales transactions. The cost of appraisals has risen; valuations have differenced dramatically from perceived market values; a rising number of alleged factual errors have been reported in appraisals; the completion of appraisals are being delayed by several days or even weeks; and appraisers from as far away as 40 miles are being assigned to conduct valuations in unfamiliar neighborhoods.

Us: What’s the outlook for the housing market in Southern California and Orange County as you see it?
I think that the markets in Orange County and Southern California in general will be pretty much what we’ve seen over the past few months-sales should maintain their current levels through most of next year and first-time buyers and investors will continue to drive the market.

Specially in Orange County, I think home prices hit bottom in early 2009, like so many other parts of the state, but that we may see an off-season dip before seeing modest appreciation in 2010. Any price increases will be determined by low inventories, low mortgage rates, and tax credits. Distressed sales will likely make up a smaller part of total supply and more discretionary sellers will enter the market.

Us: Has the market hit bottom?
When you look at the data from C.A.R., you’ll see that the median price has risen eight straight months and that prices bottomed out in February of this year. First-time buyers and investors are driving the market, and sales continue to be up year over year. Once perceptions shift and the public realizes that the market has indeed hit and passed bottom, the market can move in tandem and activity will respond accordingly.

Us: Realtor membership has been falling steadily. Do you expect that to continue in 2010, and if so, how far will membership drop?
Historically, Realtor membership has followed the same trend lines as the housing market. When the market is up, so is membership and when the market is down, membership is too.

As with any business during an economic downturn, there typically is a contraction, and real estate is no exception. Membership has been and continues to be a lagging indicator. In 2006, when the market declined sharply, California Realtor membership dipped slightly.

Us: Looking back, what role do you think Realtors may have played leading up to the economic meltdown? Is there anything CAR or Realtors could have done differently? Is greater enforcement the answer or does the Realtor Code of Ethics need revising?
Many of the safeguards that should have been in place to protect consumers weren’t there until it was too late.

It’s important that consumers educate themselves about their creditworthiness, loan rates and terms, and their ability to repay a mortgage. Every situation is different and consumers should decide on which housing scenario best matches their financial state.

Us: How has this four-year-old housing slump changed the real estate profession and the industry? How will the industry be different after the slump is over?
I think the major change we’ll see is that successful Realtors now active in the industry are serious, more focused, and more committed. For the most part, those who were less serious about real estate as a profession have left the business.

Business models and brokerage types may vary, but the value that a REALTOR?? brings to the transaction will continue to be the deciding factor when a consumer decides to purchase home.

Consumers should weigh the value each business model provides, whether it’s a discount brokerage, an online/virtual broker, or a traditional full-service brokerage, and determine which model and level of service best fits their individual situation.

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